June 30th

As nothing much has happened yet, the events of the past few weeks have probably not made it on to the American news.  However, there is a serious situation brewing here in Egypt.

It began as a generalized discontent with the president, Muhammad Morsi.  He was elected last year in a surprisingly clean election, but there is widespread discontent with his administration.  The largest factor in his successful campaign was not his qualification for the job or even his popularity, but the fact that he belonged to a political party that was already organized.  After the Revolution in 2011 a huge number of political parties began to form, but there was not time before the first elections for them to really establish a platform and a following.  The unsurprising result was that the one party with organization, leaders, and dedicated followers was the most successful. 

From what I can gather, the biggest problem with Morsi is that he is weak.  He appears to lack the will to follow through on much needed reforms and is generally considered to be a puppet of the very strong Muslim Brotherhood organization.  This somewhat fundamentalist group has a long-term goal of uniting all Arab nations under one government which follows Islamic law.  Morsi has also been accused, rightly or wrongly, of blindly following the United States' wishes at the expense of Egypt's interests. 

Whatever one's opinion of Morsi is, there is no question that he has mishandled several very important issues.  His bumbling has lead to the dissolution of the lower house of parliament, the invalidation of the new Constitution, and the discrediting of the upper house of parliament, the Shura Council.  The Shura Council has been declared unconstitutional but it is being allowed to stand until a new constitution is formed.  The military has also refused to follow Morsi's orders on a number of important occasions. 

As these problems began accumulating, a group began circulating a petition calling for early elections to oust President Morsi.  The petition has been around for several weeks now and has gained 15 million signatures, a very significant number in a country of only 85 million.  On June 30th protestors plan to march to the Presidential Palace in Cairo to present their complaint.  While this is problematic enough, it is further complicated by groups intending to counter-protest in support of Morsi on the same day.  As has happened in the past, there is a high likelihood of violence between these groups.  Given the large number of people involved and the near-complete incompetence of the police, it could get very nasty.  The military is worried enough (or opportune enough) to announce that they are prepared to take over should there be evidence of violent action towards the demonstrators.  This seems more likely than usual as the anti-Morsi protestors have stated that they will cause as much trouble as they can to get their point across.

In typical Egyptian fashion, there is very little discussion of what will happen long-term should the protestors be successful in ousting Morsi.  It is likely that elections would be held at some point, but the interim could be very unsettled.  More than one older Egyptian has stated frankly that they would prefer to have another dictator rather than another president.  There is a large portion of the population that feels Egypt is just not ready for freedom and democracy.

We have been advised to stay in all next weekend and keep a close eye on the news.  This could turn out to be much ado about not much or it could get quite dangerous.   Fortunately, even during the worst parts of the Revolution two years ago the craziness didn't come near our neighborhood.  There is no reason to expect we will be in immediate danger, but we will certainly be playing it safe!